After the results of the Jan. 23 election had sunk in with all Canadians a lot of people had the feeling that a Conservative minority government would just mean that we would have another election 1 year or 18 months down the road catapulting the country into another election campaign, the third of its kind in less than 3 years. There is doubt in the minds of some Canadians that the Conservatives will not be able to hold the confidence of the House of Commons. I believe that people are severely underestimating the longevity of our current government and that instead of the 18 months that some people are projecting I think that a three year mark is more accurate. There are a number of reasons why this government will be around for at least the next 3 years and the biggest factor in all of that is that no party is willing to go back to the polls anytime soon. Each party whether its the Liberals, the NDP, or even the Bloc has its own reasons why they don't want to get involved in bringing down the government and there is another reason why none of the parties what to get involved.
The Liberal Party is the farthest thing away from wanting another election as you can get. They have just seen their 12 year reign on Canadian Parliament come to a crashing end by losing their minority government and being forced into opposition. They are in a position that if they go to another election they may end up even worse than they already are. The other major factor, maybe even more importantly, is the fact that they don't have a leader. Immediately following the Jan. 23 vote Paul Martin resigned as leader of the Liberal Party even before he officially stepped down as prime minister. The Liberal leadership contest will be a big focus of attention in the upcoming months as the Liberal Party has said they won't have their new leader until at least the beginning of 2007, probably by March. And with a lot of big names dropping out of the race to replace Martin such as Frank McKenna, John Manley, Brian Tobin, and Allan Rock it will be interesting to see just who that person will end up being.
The Bloc Quebecois is anoter party very reluctant to go back to the polls anytime soon because of the beating they took in the last election. Gilles Duceppe predicted one of the best showings ever at the beginning of the campaign and aimed for a 50% goal for the popular vote to come his way. However, as we all witnessed just two weeks ago the Bloc were well short of their goal. They lost ground in both seats and the popular vote. The Bloc went from 54 seats to 51 seats in the House of Commons and in the popular vote from 48.9% in the last election down to 42%. The big reason for this downfall is the comeback of the Conservative Party in the province of Quebec. The Bloc fears that if they go back to another election anytime in the near future that their downslide will continue.
The NDP is the only party that I can think of that as any advantage at all of going back to the polls. Why, because they are now up to 29 seats and are making a comeback in the Canadian political scene. Also, they currently are one seat short of holding the balance of power with the Conservatives. However, while at first glance it may seem advantageous to head into another election, it will not happen because of one single reason, and that reason is what makes the world goes around: $.
The one simple factor that is preventing every single party from wanting to go back to the polls is, of course, money. All of the party coffers are getting pretty low as they have had to fund two elections in an 18 month span and the thought of another one in another 18 months makes them shudder. All parties need some time to collect donations and gain funding before they can put on another spectacular election campaign and this is the main reason why I think the 40th General Election is at least three years away and not the one year to 18 months that some people have anticipated. Mark my words right now. It will be either a fall 2008 or winter/spring 2009 election campaign and not any sooner.
- DCM
The Liberal Party is the farthest thing away from wanting another election as you can get. They have just seen their 12 year reign on Canadian Parliament come to a crashing end by losing their minority government and being forced into opposition. They are in a position that if they go to another election they may end up even worse than they already are. The other major factor, maybe even more importantly, is the fact that they don't have a leader. Immediately following the Jan. 23 vote Paul Martin resigned as leader of the Liberal Party even before he officially stepped down as prime minister. The Liberal leadership contest will be a big focus of attention in the upcoming months as the Liberal Party has said they won't have their new leader until at least the beginning of 2007, probably by March. And with a lot of big names dropping out of the race to replace Martin such as Frank McKenna, John Manley, Brian Tobin, and Allan Rock it will be interesting to see just who that person will end up being.
The Bloc Quebecois is anoter party very reluctant to go back to the polls anytime soon because of the beating they took in the last election. Gilles Duceppe predicted one of the best showings ever at the beginning of the campaign and aimed for a 50% goal for the popular vote to come his way. However, as we all witnessed just two weeks ago the Bloc were well short of their goal. They lost ground in both seats and the popular vote. The Bloc went from 54 seats to 51 seats in the House of Commons and in the popular vote from 48.9% in the last election down to 42%. The big reason for this downfall is the comeback of the Conservative Party in the province of Quebec. The Bloc fears that if they go back to another election anytime in the near future that their downslide will continue.
The NDP is the only party that I can think of that as any advantage at all of going back to the polls. Why, because they are now up to 29 seats and are making a comeback in the Canadian political scene. Also, they currently are one seat short of holding the balance of power with the Conservatives. However, while at first glance it may seem advantageous to head into another election, it will not happen because of one single reason, and that reason is what makes the world goes around: $.
The one simple factor that is preventing every single party from wanting to go back to the polls is, of course, money. All of the party coffers are getting pretty low as they have had to fund two elections in an 18 month span and the thought of another one in another 18 months makes them shudder. All parties need some time to collect donations and gain funding before they can put on another spectacular election campaign and this is the main reason why I think the 40th General Election is at least three years away and not the one year to 18 months that some people have anticipated. Mark my words right now. It will be either a fall 2008 or winter/spring 2009 election campaign and not any sooner.
- DCM
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