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QUEBEC VOTES 2007: LIBERAL MINORITY GOVERNMENT

Liberal Party 48 seats 33.08%
Action Democratique du Quebec 41 seats 30.80%
Parti Quebecois 36 seats 28.32%
Green Party of Quebec 0 seats 3.89%
Quebec Solidaire 0 seats 3.65%
other 0 seats 0.26%

The Quebec provincial election is now over and the Liberals, led by Jean Charest, are now faced with the first minority government situation in almost 130 years. This fact is probably the only prediction that held true from what experts were saying was going to happen last night. They predicted a Liberal minority government, but they left out the whole part about where the Parti Quebecois would be reduced to third party status and the Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ) would become the Official Opposition.

To put Quebec's provincial political parties on a spectrum for you we will take a look at five parties. The Liberal Party, still holding power, is probably at the centre, if not a little to the right. This is in contrast to the federal Liberal Party which is slightly left of centre. The Parti Quebecois, the separatist party, is also very close to the centre but probably a little bit left. The ADQ, under Mario Dumont, is a conservative, right-wing party that does not support sovereignty, but more of an autonomous Quebec. Quebec Solidaire is a very left-wing socialist party and the Green Party is also left of centre.

Basically, this is what the election results mean for Quebec and for Canada. The Liberals have a minority government and the ADQ are the opposition. That means that the two parties with the most seats are anti-sovereignty and will put the PQ in a bad position for a very long time and it is unlikely that Quebec will be facing another referendum for a very long time. This is great for federalists in Quebec and for the rest of Canada. The fact that the ADQ almost won the election and are now the opposition means that the conservative movement is coming back to Quebec. We saw the beginning of this last year when Harper and the Conservatives made some inroads in the federal election and now we see more evidence with this result.

I said yesterday that the best possible outcome was a strong Liberal majority but I also said that I did not know a lot about Quebec provincial politics. At the time, I thought that the ADQ were a conservative sovereigntist party, of which I now realize that I am mistaken. The ADQ are a conservative party but they are not in favour of sovereignty but instead they lean towards Quebec autonomy inside of Canada. I believe that a Liberal minority government with the ADQ as the Official Opposition is the best case scenario for Quebec right now, which is what we are seeing. And the only reason I say this and not that I believe the ADQ should win is that the ADQ were going into this election with the hopes of achieving official party status, a minimum of 12 seats in the National Assembly. They more than tripled their hopes and landed with 41 seats and Official Opposition status. They would not be ready to govern a province and to be the governing party but they will be soon. My hopes are that in the next election, whenever that may be, the ADQ will continue to gain support and have a team ready to become the government and to oust the Liberals from office.

Conservative support has not had a presence in Quebec since the 1980s under PM Brian Mulroney. The Conservatives have all but been shut out of Quebec ridings in elections since 1993 and it has not been until 2006 that they have started to get back some of that support. This election furthers the cause and if Stephen Harper and the Conservatives were to call an election right now there is a good chance that Quebec will reward him for his efforts. In the federal budget released earlier this month Harper has laid out a lot of money for Quebec, so much so that it will garner the support of the Bloc Quebecois. When the budget was released Harper was asked whether his contributions would help Charest and the Liberals get elected with a majority government. Harper slyly said that there was another federalist option in Quebec and we all know that he wasn't referring to the Parti Quebecois. Harper will be happy reading the news this morning and we'll have to wait and see if this does anything in terms of launching a federal election.

- DCM

Comments

Anonymous said…
darcey, i miss your blogs. i had this huge political debate last night, you would have loooooved it.

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