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WELCOME TO ELECTION SEASON '07

October 2007 is a month that has been marked on calendars as one to watch for political junkies across the country. There are two provinces and a territory holding general elections this month as well as the reconvening of the federal government. It is being predicted that when the new fall session begins on the 16th with the Speech from the Throne that there is a big possibility of an election being called. And all of this adds up to a very interesting month around the country to see what kind of trends develop and what people are thinking.

First, we will start off with the election in the Northwest Territories that was held at the beginning of the month. NWT is unique is the way the government and its elections run. There are no parties and all candidates run as independents. After the election is held there is a leadership conference where the premier and cabinet are decided upon. The election has been held and the conference will take place on Friday to determine the new premier.

Last night people in Newfoundland went to the polls and premier Danny Williams and his Progressive Conservative party won the biggest landslide election in Newfoundland since 1949. There are 47 seats in the Newfoundland legislature and the PCs won 43 of them, with the Liberals taking 3 and with the NDP leader holding the only NDP seat. Williams, a very outspoken critic of the federal Conservative government, was able to ride his popularity among Newfoundland residents to the polls and won his seat with almost 90% of the vote. The PCs now have an even larger majority government before allowing Williams another long term as premier.

Today is another important day in terms of elections as Ontario heads to the polls. Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals are looking to return to government while John Tory and the Conservatives are looking to take over. The NDP isn't expected to have a strong showing as their support continues to fall under leader Howard Hampton. The other big issue with this election is the historical referendum that goes along with it where voters will choose whether to keep their current electoral system or switch to a mixed-member proportional system.

There is a general trend in Canadian politics where provincial elections will usually yield a government that is the opposite of the federal government. From 1993-2006 while the Liberals held Ottawa there was a gradual change in the provinces to elect Conservative governments as seen with Nova Scotia, Alberta, Ontario, New Brunswick, PEI, Newfoundland, and the Yukon. At the same time British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were led by an NDP government. Now that the Conservatives under Stephen Harper in office for almost two years now it will be interesting to see if the same trend continues.

Since Harper became prime minister in January of 2006 there have been 7 elections called by the provinces and territories. Only two of them have switched governments where both the Progressive Conservative governments in PEI and New Brunswick have been defeated by the Liberals. In Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and the Yukon the Conservative governments were maintained. Manitoba stayed under NDP control and Quebec is still in Liberal hands although it suffered a huge blow in its support along with the Parti Quebecois when the ADQ, a conservative party, made a huge unpredicted breakthrough. We will see later on today whether the Liberal government will retain control of Quebec and there is also a possible election in Alberta coming up.

Parliament will be reconvening on Oct. 16th where it is widely held that there will be a possibility of an election coming up soon. All of this makes for a very interesting next couple of months.

- DCM

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