WILL THE ORANGE WAVE STICK AROUND OR WASH BACK OUT TO SEA?
We are sitting 3-4 months away from a federal election in Canada and current polls suggest a three way race between the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP during the election campaign. The surge of support for the NDP, especially in Quebec, in the 2011 campaign remains strong and the latest polling numbers show that a Thomas Mulcair-led NDP minority government is a very real possibility. With the late Jack Layton at the helm the NDP in 2011, the Orange Crush all but eliminated the Bloc Quebecois from the political map in Quebec. Four years later, the NDP are still riding high, but...
What will the return of former Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe mean for the NDP's chances in dominating Quebec?
What does the recent election of an NDP government in Alberta mean for this election?
Is the NDP surge of support peaking too early ahead of the election?
Is Mulcair's recent focus on abolishing the Senate the right path to victory?
There remain many questions to be answered between now and the fall election regarding the NDP's hopes of its first federal government and on the leadership of Thomas Mulcair. But it can't be ignored that an NDP government is a very real possibility. Stephen Harper has enjoyed the 6th longest premiership term in Canadian history and the extension of that term is also a large possibility although, unless something tide changing happens in the next few months, he may be reduced back down to a minority government.
Yesterday, long time Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe announced his return to lead the BQ in the upcoming election and try to restore the party's reputation that was decimated in the 2011 election by the NDP. The BQ were reduced to just 4 seats in the House of Commons in 2011 and only hold onto 2 of those seats at the moment so there is a lot of work to be done. There was not much expected from the Bloc Quebecois and leader Mario Beaulieu in this election before yesterday's announcement but Duceppe's return has big implications for the Quebec seats.
The most important aspect of Duceppe's return is his intentions on trying to return the favour to the NDP from 2011 when the Orange Wave swept over the province so much that the Bloc did not even retain official party status and is in the same boat as Elizabeth May and the Green Party. iPolitics has indicated that Duceppe wants to kick the NDP out of Quebec and told Mulcair to worry about the Conservatives in the rest of the country. However, Duceppe's plan may do more to help the Conservatives than hurt them. The NDP support is Quebec based and if the Bloc even manage to restore some of their former glory in the province then it will eat away at the NDP support and may prolong Harper's term as Prime Minister.
Last month, Alberta saw an unprecedented NDP government elected in the provincial election with an overwhelming majority bringing to and end the 44 year reign of the Progressive Conservatives in the province. Mulcair is looking to build on new Alberta Premier Rachel Notley's victory by finally gaining some ground in Alberta, a traditional stronghold for the Conservative Party. An increase of support in the West could go a long way in replacing support lost in Quebec. However, it could also take support away from the federal NDPs as Alberta voters may still want to retain their strong representation in the House of Commons while they test out a new provincial government.
The most recent poll shows a tight, three-way race between the three main parties and it shows Mulcair slightly out ahead of Harper and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau. However, that poll was conducted prior to Duceppe's announced return so it will be interesting to see how that affects the next poll.
In light of the recent Auditor General's report on Senate expenses and the controversy that followed, Mulcair has taken a hard stance on the Senate and has insisted an NDP government would pursue abolishing the Senate if elected. This position by Mulcair struck me as odd for a number of reasons. First it should be noted that the NDP has historically been in favour of Senate reform or abolishment and was one issue that they had in common with the Conservatives. So that fact remains consistent with Mulcair's recent remarks. However, Quebec is vehemently opposed to abolishing the Senate as it is a large representation base for the province in Ottawa and will not want to see it disappear. As mentioned, the NDP's current base of support is in Quebec as over 50% of their current seats in the House of Commons are in that one province. So why would Mulcair take a position opposite that of most of his current representation?
There is more to come on the state of the Canadian Senate. This is not a new issue in Canada but has recently been renewed with more fuel on the fire.
What will the return of former Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe mean for the NDP's chances in dominating Quebec?
What does the recent election of an NDP government in Alberta mean for this election?
Is the NDP surge of support peaking too early ahead of the election?
Is Mulcair's recent focus on abolishing the Senate the right path to victory?
There remain many questions to be answered between now and the fall election regarding the NDP's hopes of its first federal government and on the leadership of Thomas Mulcair. But it can't be ignored that an NDP government is a very real possibility. Stephen Harper has enjoyed the 6th longest premiership term in Canadian history and the extension of that term is also a large possibility although, unless something tide changing happens in the next few months, he may be reduced back down to a minority government.
Yesterday, long time Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe announced his return to lead the BQ in the upcoming election and try to restore the party's reputation that was decimated in the 2011 election by the NDP. The BQ were reduced to just 4 seats in the House of Commons in 2011 and only hold onto 2 of those seats at the moment so there is a lot of work to be done. There was not much expected from the Bloc Quebecois and leader Mario Beaulieu in this election before yesterday's announcement but Duceppe's return has big implications for the Quebec seats.
The most important aspect of Duceppe's return is his intentions on trying to return the favour to the NDP from 2011 when the Orange Wave swept over the province so much that the Bloc did not even retain official party status and is in the same boat as Elizabeth May and the Green Party. iPolitics has indicated that Duceppe wants to kick the NDP out of Quebec and told Mulcair to worry about the Conservatives in the rest of the country. However, Duceppe's plan may do more to help the Conservatives than hurt them. The NDP support is Quebec based and if the Bloc even manage to restore some of their former glory in the province then it will eat away at the NDP support and may prolong Harper's term as Prime Minister.
Last month, Alberta saw an unprecedented NDP government elected in the provincial election with an overwhelming majority bringing to and end the 44 year reign of the Progressive Conservatives in the province. Mulcair is looking to build on new Alberta Premier Rachel Notley's victory by finally gaining some ground in Alberta, a traditional stronghold for the Conservative Party. An increase of support in the West could go a long way in replacing support lost in Quebec. However, it could also take support away from the federal NDPs as Alberta voters may still want to retain their strong representation in the House of Commons while they test out a new provincial government.
The most recent poll shows a tight, three-way race between the three main parties and it shows Mulcair slightly out ahead of Harper and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau. However, that poll was conducted prior to Duceppe's announced return so it will be interesting to see how that affects the next poll.
In light of the recent Auditor General's report on Senate expenses and the controversy that followed, Mulcair has taken a hard stance on the Senate and has insisted an NDP government would pursue abolishing the Senate if elected. This position by Mulcair struck me as odd for a number of reasons. First it should be noted that the NDP has historically been in favour of Senate reform or abolishment and was one issue that they had in common with the Conservatives. So that fact remains consistent with Mulcair's recent remarks. However, Quebec is vehemently opposed to abolishing the Senate as it is a large representation base for the province in Ottawa and will not want to see it disappear. As mentioned, the NDP's current base of support is in Quebec as over 50% of their current seats in the House of Commons are in that one province. So why would Mulcair take a position opposite that of most of his current representation?
There is more to come on the state of the Canadian Senate. This is not a new issue in Canada but has recently been renewed with more fuel on the fire.
Comments