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IOWA & NEW HAMPSHIRE: OFF TO THE RACES

The race for the Democratic presidential nomination has changed drastically over the last two weeks. From the Democratic debate on Jan. 17th to the Iowa caucus on Feb. 1st, the first real test of the campaign, the story of the race has changed from “Hillary Clinton vs. the GOP candidate field” to “Clinton vs. Sanders” as Bernie Sanders continues to emerge as an actual threat to Clinton for the Democratic nomination. The change in the race culminated from the Democratic debate in South Carolina on Jan. 17th and for the past two weeks the nomination campaigns of Clinton and Sanders have begun to look a little bit like the Republican campaign.

President Barack Obama, despite statements that he would remain neutral on the Democratic nomination race, indirectly entered the picture causing some damage to Bernie Sanders’ campaign efforts. In an interview with Politico’s Glenn Thrush, Obama implied that Clinton would be the best successor to him and would have the best chance against the Republican field. However, Obama came short of supporting or endorsing either candidate for nomination. Obama’s comments were seen as a slight towards Sanders and the Sanders campaign has scrambled to downplay the implications of Obama’s statements. On Jan. 27th, Sanders met with Obama at the White House to discuss multiple issues and Obama appeared to revert back to a position of neutrality in the race.

Bernie Sanders has made progress in the three main polling areas being watched at this time. In Iowa, polling suggests that the race is in a dead heat with Clinton maintaining a slight edge. In New Hampshire, Sanders’ huge lead over Clinton continues to increase with the latest CNN/WMUR poll putting Sanders at 60% with Clinton down to 33%. And on the national level, where Clinton is still the clear favourite, the latest ABC News/Washington Post national poll shows Clinton’s lead continues to slide, now at a 55% compared to Sanders at 36%.

As the final push is on heading into the Iowa caucus on Monday there has been focus put on Bernie Sanders’ vision of foreign policy, or lack thereof. Sanders has been portrayed as someone who always steers away from foreign policy and national security issues and instead focuses on domestic policy and the economy. This image both helps and hurts Sanders’ chances at winning the Democratic nomination. On a positive note, if recent polling is to be believed, foreign policy is not a top agenda item this time around which works in Bernie’s favour. On the flipside, an important aspect of being a presidential nominee for the Democrats is the electability of Sanders to the White House. Inexperience on the foreign policy file will hurt Sanders in that manner.

All eyes are now on Iowa as both the Democratic and Republican nominee candidates make their final case for their parties, and then the circus heads east to New Hampshire for the first primary on the calendar on Feb. 9th. What results from the dead heat between Sanders and Clinton in Iowa and from Sanders' tremendous lead in New Hampshire is sure to have major effects on the shape of the Democratic nomination race.

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