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BERNIE 2016: SANDERS HEADS SOUTH



Bernie Sanders has moved from a thorn in the side of Hillary Clinton’s campaign to a legitimate contender for the Democratic presidential nomination. Whether Sanders will be a legitimate contender to the Republicans is an entirely different argument. For now, as primary season is officially underway, I will focus on the Democratic campaign. The last two weeks have been jam-packed with the Iowa caucus on Feb. 1st, a debate in New Hampshire on Feb. 4th, the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 8th, and another debate in Wisconsin on Feb. 11th. And with all of these events Sanders has left his mark on this nomination race.


Sanders started off the primary calendar strong with only the slimmest of defeats to Clinton in the Iowa caucus on Feb. 1st. The results were 49.9% in favour of Clinton to 49.6% in favour of Sanders. (Gearan, 2016) It doesn’t get much closer than that and for Sanders, who no more than a month ago was perceived by some to be an afterthought to Clinton’s nomination, can claim some form of victory from this result. It took some time to officially declare Clinton the Iowa winner but by then both candidates had moved on to New Hampshire and O’Malley had already dropped out of the race.


The Iowa results solidify what many have speculated leading up the caucus: Sanders is here to stay. The most interesting story to come from the Iowa result, albeit not entirely unexpected, is the margin of victory that Sanders had on young voters in Iowa. Sanders has long held the support of younger generations and students but the support of 84% of voters between the ages of 17 and 29 is significant. (Cillizza, 2016)


Unfortunately for Sanders, this is the age bracket that is least likely to vote so it will be important for his campaign to focus on getting his support out to vote in the caucuses and primaries. There are some similarities that can be made here to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals’ successful campaign last fall in Canada. The Liberals garnered a lot of support from younger and first time voters and there was a noticeable increase in voter turnout in the election as they were able to get out their voters. If the Sanders’ campaign can do the same he may be able to overcome the seemingly insurmountable feat of bringing down the Clinton campaign and securing the Democratic nomination.


By the time the Iowa results were official for the Democrats the circus had moved onto New Hampshire where the picture is vastly different than Iowa. All polls show Sanders with a considerable lead ahead of Clinton as the state neighbours is home state of Vermont. Clinton and Sanders agreed to an additional debate on Feb.4th prior to the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9th. The Democratic debate was more lively and substantive than previous debates for two reasons: Sanders has emerged as a legitimate contender and O’Malley’s withdrawal from the nomination race has allowed for a head-to-head format between Sanders and Clinton.


Between the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary Bernie Sanders also landed a few key endorsements from prominent Black leaders in South Carolina. South Carolina Representatives’ Joe Neal, Wendell Gilliard and Justin Bamberg, former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Richard Harpootlian, and former head of the NAACP Ben Jealous have all now endorsed Sanders which should help to boost Sanders’ appeal to Black voters, a demographic he has struggled with this far. (Coyne, 2016) (Henderson, 2016) (Neidig, 2016)


It was anticipated that Sanders was going to run away with the New Hampshire primary and he did not disappoint. Sanders won with 60.4% of the vote compared to 38% for Clinton, an overwhelming victory for his campaign. The New Hampshire win will increase campaign contributions and continue to build his momentum started in Iowa.


Next up on the Democratic primary calendar is the Nevada caucus on Feb. 20th. Polling previously conducted prior to the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary favoured Clinton heavily in this race but recent polling suggests that, similar to Iowa, it will be neck and neck. One week after Nevada, the Democratic primary is held in South Carolina. This will be Sanders’ biggest challenge so far as Clinton’s main advantage over Sanders is in the African American and Hispanic demographics.

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